- Aug 14, 2015
Hot-N-Cold [EP. 6]: The Tymp of Our Lives
Holiday Cheers, Jeers, and Tears (of Joy)
A photo from my time hiking the Rocky Mountains in Colorado, USA, last summer. Lake Haiyaha (2023).
Wow, it's been almost a year since my last Hot-N-Cold episode. I was waiting for a long event (as opposed to a short Swarm) to dedicate some time and energy to tracking and graphing. The content remains similar to what has been done in the past episodes with some changes. For one, I removed the whole hypothesis testing portion because I saw it as redundant and not comprehension-friendly. Secondly, I added average encounters, average time, and chances for one shiny based on my total encounters. Lastly, I added an average time and number of shinies for the spawn details while removing the unhelpful bar.
Data and Visuals
My strategy for this event (if we can call it that) was to do 3-day rotations between the land and water encounters. So I began with 3 days of water, then 3 days of land, back to water, land, water... So in the end, I had 12 days of water and 12 days of land. This way, tracking was easier and the hunting felt less tiring. Tracking land encounters took more dedication because there was barely any downtime to increase the counter before I had to move left and right again. Fishing gave me 3-4 seconds of downtime to increase the counter and relax. With 51,384 total encounters spanning over 200+ hours (157 hours from hunting), this was the most I have ever participated in an event.
In terms of my results, I felt like everything averaged out quite nicely, if not, a tiny bit better than expected. I found a little bit of everything, except the Pokémon from Port Terminal Circle since that was more of a throwback area if anything. I would have hunted a S Ponyta, but did not want to make the visuals and counters for that map. C'est la vie. The spawn rates felt fair enough even though it kills me with how long it takes to find a T5. PWO is no joke with their rates, which adds to both the fun and frustration.
In the shiny department, I happened to hunt down 24 shinies which averages out to a neat 1 shiny per day, and more accurately, 1 every 6.5 hours. 4 Swinubs, 2 Teddiursas, 4 Pinecos, 4 Remoraids, 3 Corsolas, 7 Chinchous. Some days were great, other days not so much. I am a bit bummed to not get anything better than a shiny T1, but as you can see in the main table, the chances were at best 17% for a S Snorunt and for the other shiny T2s. If you are interested in figuring out your probabilities, here are some basic formulas:
- Finding a specific Pokémon:
- Finding any shiny Pokemon:
- Finding a specific shiny Pokémon:
Where P(Spawn) is the probability of finding the specific Pokémon and TotalEncounters is the number of encounters attempted. If you don't hunt with Membership, switch from 2048 to 8196.
For the average time, I assumed that every encounter took 11 seconds and did not factor in the time it took to catch each Pokémon or do other stuff within the event period (e.g. doing quests, typing in chat, and being wildly inefficient). So while my average times may make it seem like I'm "lucky," the actual Tier benchmarks are a better representation of your hunting experience. For example, 157 hunting hours / 13 T5s = ~12 hours vs. 200 event hours / 13 T5s = ~15 hours.
All in all, I thought the event was a success, but perhaps I'm a little biased. I thought the spawns were fairly balanced between land and water, i.e. no Gible situation. Light Clay will be fun to use once the other supporting components are introduced. Special event moves were neat, even though they're more of a collector's thing now. Quests were straightforward enough, but didn't think too much about it after the first day since my brain went into full "me hunt, me catch" mode. For the time being, I'll just go back to E4 with my new Cryogonal companion and navigate through other stuff in the background. I will say, enjoy this downtime while you still can.