Hot-N-Cold [EP. 5]: A Concert On Thin Ice


Aug 14, 2015

Hot-N-Cold [EP. 5]: A Concert On Thin Ice

New Year, Same Old Rod

"Ice-capade" by AsianKid - Top 14 in Official PWO Art Contest 2022 - Winner in TheAOKTimes' heart


I have come to do the usual debrief. It should not look too much different from my past "Hot-N-Cold" posts. Hope you enjoy it!

Data and Visuals


The spawn details visual has a similar appearance to Luna's version, however, I displayed average encounters instead of average time and scaled the bar to my liking. I made the visual in Excel and used my best judgment to determine where each Pokémon lies on this hypothetical scale. For starters, Surskit felt like a T2 despite being T1. To compare, Kricketot took ~13 fewer encounters to find than Surskit. Though I suppose Grass and Fishing spawns should be observed separately. I feel like as you rise in tiers, the range gets exponentially bigger between an "easy" version of the tier versus the "hard" version. Skarmory felt like an "easy T3" while Feebas felt like a "hard T3/T3+". My initial thoughts were that Finneon was a T5 encounter, but it's just a glorified T4+. T5s are really just a different beast compared to the rest because Cubchoo took me over 7,000 encounters to find. That was nothing short of painful..


Tier 1s made up nearly 97% of the total encounters and are the reason the standard bar graph has a logarithmic scale; otherwise, the large values simply skew the graph.

After capturing Cubchoo, I spent the rest of my time fishing and farming Event Coins. Personally, the grass spawns weren't all that exciting to me and I preferred to get as many Event Coins as possible to exchange for exclusive items. Green is also my favorite color, so finding those S Azurills gave me a higher dose of dopamine.


With my 23,847 encounters, the expected number of shinies is 12. I would have needed as low as 4 shinies or as high as 19 shinies to make a sufficient claim that my shiny chance is not 1/2048 with Membership. Between Dec. 26th and Jan. 15th, I caught 11 shinies. I caught 2 shinies on the 25th, but I was not recording my encounters at that point.

3 Psyducks, 3 Azurills, 1 Mantyke; 3 Igglybuffs, 1 Mankey, 2 Smoochums


This event came as a pleasant surprise as I was half-expecting a swarm instead. It became less pleasant as the weeks went on since I have the hunting aptitude of a potato. Nevertheless, I was more interested in the tutors and exclusive items - U-Turn being the TM I exchanged 90% of my Event Coins towards. I did not catch anything all that spectacular, but that's nothing new for me, your casual hunting hater. Not gonna lie, I was struggling with my inner demons during the last couple of days of the event and after the Generation 1 tournament was announced. Besides being melodramatic, I appreciate the Staff hosting yet another Christmas, Kwanzaa, Hanukkah, festive event. I had some qualms with the Meloetta x Loudred dynamic, but the quests were fun and simple enough. So yeah..there anything more to say? He asks rhetorically. I'll leave you with some food for thought: "The greatest deception trainers suffer is from their own opinions." - Leonardo da Victini
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