AsianKid
Youngster
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2015
- Messages
- 195
- Points
- 93
Hot-N-Cold [EP. 1]: Are Shiny Rates Rigged Against Me?
The Harsh Cold Reality of Hunting in PWO And Why You Still Have “X” Shinies
Introduction:
Alright, if you haven’t been buried underneath all the patches of snow, you may have noticed that PWO has concluded its last event of 2021. Now if you spent any odd amount of time hunting cool Pokémon and exchanging gifts in NorthBell, you will have probably seen the Global or All channels flooded with endless joy, conversation, and most of all, outcries of bad RNG.
You’ve seen the channels, you’ve read the messages. Messages which say:
- “Still no shiny”
- “MS is broken and no work for me”
- “3 days no shiny”
- “Admins hate me and removed shiny chance from my account”
- “I JUST WANT A SHINY AHHHHHHHH”
“Like I have hunted for tens of hours in this event, shouldn’t the game just award me a free shiny? I do deserve it, after all.”
“I hunted all this time and just get S Sentrets and bad Heracrosses UGH!”
Other games such as Genshin Impact implement a pity system where after a certain amount of “rolls” you are guaranteed to get a high-ranking item. Why doesn’t PWO introduce such a system? Reasons. Personally, I see no reason to appease a small group of entitled trainers. A pity system in the Token Store would also be a nightmare for reasons I won’t delve into. But try as we might to familiarize ourselves with the odds and temper our expectations, we cannot escape our frustrations with hunting. Believe me, I’ve had hunting periods where there was a whole lotta nothin’ and I'll be the first to say: IT SUCKS! I understand what it's like to hunt Mons days on end and have nothing to show for my relentless effort. Growing increasingly anxious with each encounter as my mood dampens as I click on Global and see everyone else catching amazing Pokémon - a common case of the NorthBell blues.
Curious as to whether misfortune favors a lad like me, I decided to record all my encounters in NorthBell from Jan. 1 to Jan. 16. Afterward, I ran some tests to determine one thing: Were shiny rates rigged against me during this event? Well, here's what I found.
Data and Graphs
I spent the majority of my time fishing. Fishing was simply more relaxing and was the quickest way to farm Gift Pieces. I also didn’t want to pass up the opportunity to catch some orange Shellders. I do not have data for Dec. 24 through Dec. 31 because, well, the idea of creating this had not materialized then. There was the possibility for more encounters but I am a fool for Gifts, so I fainted almost every Mon on site. I averaged about 174 encounters per hour over the course of 124 hours of pure hunting.
Dec 24-31: 2 Sentret; 2 Swinub; 1 Shellder (5 total, not a part of the dataset)
Jan 1-16: 3 Sentret; 0 Swinub; 3 Clefairy; 3 Seel; 4 Shellder; 1 Zigzagoon; 1 Spheal (15 total) ...still only 20 shiny
Hypothesis Testing
I’ll be using MegaStat, an add-in program for Microsoft Excel, to help with running some basic analyses.
| Situation: In PWO, the shiny chance with Membership is said to be 1/2048, or about 0.05%. AsianKid claims that his Membership is broken and that his shiny chances are different from other trainers hunting in the NorthBell event. At the 95% confidence level, is there any evidence to suggest that AsianKid’s shiny chance differs from PWO’s stated shiny chance? Null Hypothesis: Shiny0 = 1/2048, Translated: what PWO claims and is assumed to be “true” Alternative Hypothesis: Shinya ≠ 1/2048, Translated: what AsianKid intends to prove to be “true” |
Conclusion
Now I ain’t no statistician and do not claim that these tests are conclusive and are the end-all, be-all of the shiny RNG discussion. That being said, I hope this fun experiment gave you a little idea of what hunting in PWO looks like in semi-organized data tables and colorful graphs. At the end of the day, PWO is a huge grind and can feel like a huge pain - no amount of EZs and Name Passes will change that. However, the satisfaction and adrenaline rush of finding that one special encounter is a feeling unmatched. Say what you will about your bad luck or aptitude for finding low-IV Pokémon, as long as we agree that finding a Tier 3 Shiny Oddish must feel terrible, amirite?
I plan to record encounters for future events and I encourage the doubtful or curious to do the same - though I must say it is a tedious process. I personally used tallycount.app and my phone’s stopwatch to record everything. If there is anything you'd like to see in future posts or have recommendations to improve the quality and comprehensibility of the work, I’m all for constructive criticism. I know it seems that I’m throwing numbers at y’all with little justification, so I plan to make these things more simple, succinct, and visually appealing in the future. Enjoy a well-earned break!
AK~
TL;DR Hunting odds suck for everyone, some just handle the dull periods better. Shiny chances aren’t rigged, you probably just didn’t try as hard as you say you do. Numbers don’t lie but can be easily manipulated. Feel free to refute. You can’t change the odds, but you can change your attitude and overcome those odds.
