The games Economy and shiny chance

[Boora]

Hey guys, i just came to to pwo a few days ago and i was really shocked to see whats going on, let me try to explain
it looks like the game is devided by 2 groups, i'l call them the "S>pidgey 2k" group and the S>(S)UC(S)HR 23131Bil each group
if it wasn't clear, i'm saying that theres no middle ground in the game as of now, you either very rich becasue you're an old player or you were given some pokes by old players, or you're very and i mean Very poor
and this is a problem, becasue if i wanted to sell somethig, it will take me months and months to even get a close vlaue price if the 5-6 people who can afford it are not interested, and no im not talking about the 1 to 2b poke,
im talking about the 100-200m poke. which is not suppose ot be that hard to sell or even obtain and this gets me to the second part of my topic

the shiny chance, its clear to anyone who played pwo for over 2 years that its much much harder now to get shinys, even the common useless ones, its either duo to the fact that you cant run away before the msg anymore or it was lowered without us knowing, this effects the entire game becasue even with membership its pretty much impossible to get shiny tier 2-4 (not gonna talk about 5 it suppose to be almost impossible) without spending countless hours on the game
(i spent 24hours hunting with 0 shinies with a membership, yes 24. 2 years ago i'd get 1shiny/6h at average.)
and the mainpoint is that this is the one and only way to gain money in the game, i just came back with battlers that use to be worth ALOT and now i cant get 10m for them, so people cant really farm good ivs anymore, i mean they could and slowly gain pd, which is fine, but at this rate it would take them about 6 months to afford one of my pokemons, and no im not boasting,im nothing, there are people with x20 my value of stuff.
my point is , something has to be done, people should be able to earn money somehow, and it would be nice to see more then 3 people (me included) spam rare pokemons now and again,
i'l suggest lowering the shiny chance or making it so the battles are faster, more shiny rares which means the money will be devided between all of the people and not just the top 5 players, for example a new player will catch a shiny 3-4(vr i guess) and i will buy it from him, then he will buy s rares from another player, this way the money or even the pokemons will be reachable to more people,

you guys can come up with different ideas, but something has to be done, it doesn't make any sense that theres no middle in a game,

i'm sorry if i didnt explain myself correctly or fully, i'm here to answer anything i didnt make clear

 

[Boora]

i'm gonna add something to counter a common argument, yes the price will drop for the shiny rares+, 100% correct, but its worth it if more people will get money, im willing to lose some of the value for my pokemons if more people will get them, i'd love to see more then handfull of people able to afford what they like, becasue they sold 2 or 3 shiny rares+, and just to make it clear, the max statso nes will always stay the same price, its always been this way and always will be.

 

[MaxBlade94]

shiny chance is still 2048/1 with Ms i think you are just unlucky

 

[Klay]

I'm more than not agree.


In ALL MMOs (and i'm talking about every kind of MMOs (Shaiya, WoW, TESO, Dofus, Heartstone...), not just pokemon ones), new players ARE poor, cause they begin.
And like in all MMOs, if you want to have instantly ingame cash or UnObtainable items/"pokemons", you have to pay with real cash.
Just to compare : to have access to 90% of the game in Payday 2 and Dofus (and so leveling up faster and find better items), you have to pay with real cash. Same system with membership, if you want a better chance to find shinies than in heldgames, you have to pay with real cash. And the MMOs i'm taking as exemples have a free economic system like right now in PWO.
And if you don't want to use real cash, it's just like in all MMO AND Pokemon games: you have to spend time in the game to tend to be the very best.


In heldgames, it's harder to find shinies (at least, with 800h+ of playing in heldgames, i never found any shinies when in PWO i found like 10+ shinies). There's some players who actually don't care about shinies (like Sylpharionz), and they can pvp against shining team and wining. Actually, shinies are expensives cause it's harder to find a good one, but an "all ivs 30 larvitar and an "shiny all ivs 30 larvitar" have the same value in battle. And, oh, Pokemon isn't about collecting shinies, but about collecting pokemons (whatever the color) and battles.


For the fact that you have troubles to find buyers for your pokemons, concider that people with cash can already have pokemons they want, so they don't need to buy more than they have. Or they want to catch themselves their pokemons as in heldgames to be proud of catching good pokemons. It's my case, and I'm part of the middle group you seem to do not see. Yeah I "only" have 4 millions (and it's because i sold a King's Rock (droppable item), I usually have only 200k), but I also found a lot of good pokemons, shinies AND regulars, and if one day i want to sell them, I'll be part of what you call the rich players. For the fact that you have troubles to find shinies with membership, even if it's 1/2000+ on each encounter, it's only about random numbers generated system on each encounter, a random numbers generated system similar to heldgames (in easy word, "luck").


There's a lot of way to make cash in PWO:
- fainting pokemons;
- selling good ivs pokemons;
- (re)fainting npcs;
- doing quests;
- selling droppable/battle-tower items;
- doing daycare...


And by the way, in heldgames Pokemon, you don't need to buy pokemons. Just pokeballs.


Thanks to concider this game as a free MMO game which tend mostly to looks like heldgames.


(I understand your point fo view, but you don't seem to understand that it works like that in all MMOs and there's no problem)



Edit: sorry for my crappy english, it's not my motherlanguage :/

 

[Rigaudon]

(Just a few notes of information for anyone wanting to discuss

*I know the concept of it is based on distrust so my word might not do anything for you, but the shiny chance is exactly as advertised. It is 1/8192 and 1/2048.

*The total amount of ingame money has been going down for a while thanks to an increase of item variety (repel, TMs great ball, ultra ball, etc) and the quick-transport system (ferries, trains, etc).

 

[Electrofreak]

To be blunt, the amount of money in the game's economy is drastically reducing, and due to the reluctant nature of people to lower prices on anything, deflation is always lagging behind the amount of money being drained from the system.

Example:
1.person X pays 100m for pokemon y on day Z
2. person X values pokemon Y at 100m 50 days later.
3. 50 days later even more money was drained from the game from various outlets.
4. Pokemon Y 50 days later is not actually 100m anymore (it is less), but retains the same RELATIVE value to everything else in similar pricing tiers, so the player deceptively assumes it is still worth 100m.


This is why things are the way they are, and not because of old ivs. The current situation is that no one WANTS to trade their old ivs. They are collection pieces now, even for the non-battle pokemon. The issue is that you cannot as easily REPLACE those pokemon anymore, and as such are more reluctant to trading them in the first place. That is the only reason, in the beginning, why 28+ spiked up in value. So you have people who are more reluctant to sell due to being harder to replace + the economy deflating happening at once. The problem would STILL EXIST with even one of these factors, but the issue is both are occurring at the same time causing the reality of the market to change faster than the REALIZATION by the player-base of these economic tendencies.

When we get more 20+ shinies in the system, it will even things out in terms of trading. We just need to give it time so that 20+ will become the new standard of trading. It is already happening and is another reason why 28+ increased. 20+ being the standard, means things above that standard just went up. 28+ shinies also disappear due to bans or inactivity account wipes which will mean it will take a shorter amount of time for 20+ to catch up as the standard. We don't need another 8 years to do so.

TL;DR
Give it time, it will fix itself. Players are just too slow to realize these things generally speaking + we dont have enough of the new-age shinies to outnumber 28+ as the norm yet in higher tier rarities.

People also don't seem to realize just how many 28+ disappear per year. Hundreds of 28+ disappear EVERY SINGLE YEAR, assuming they still end up doing account wipes for inactives.

The system will produce healthier outcomes in the long-run, but for the short-run it will seem highly imbalanced.

 

[Electrofreak]

That feel when I got ninja'd by staff....

 

[Boora]

I'm more than not agree.


In ALL MMOs (and i'm talking about every kind of MMOs (Shaiya, WoW, TESO, Dofus, Heartstone...), not just pokemon ones), new players ARE poor, cause they begin.
And like in all MMOs, if you want to have instantly ingame cash or UnObtainable items/"pokemons", you have to pay with real cash.
Just to compare : to have access to 90% of the game in Payday 2 and Dofus (and so leveling up faster and find better items), you have to pay with real cash. Same system with membership, if you want a better chance to find shinies than in heldgames, you have to pay with real cash. And the MMOs i'm taking as exemples have a free economic system like right now in PWO.
And if you don't want to use real cash, it's just like in all MMO AND Pokemon games: you have to spend time in the game to tend to be the very best.


In heldgames, it's harder to find shinies (at least, with 800h+ of playing in heldgames, i never found any shinies when in PWO i found like 10+ shinies). There's some players who actually don't care about shinies (like Sylpharionz), and they can pvp against shining team and wining. Actually, shinies are expensives cause it's harder to find a good one, but an "all ivs 30 larvitar and an "shiny all ivs 30 larvitar" have the same value in battle. And, oh, Pokemon isn't about collecting shinies, but about collecting pokemons (whatever the color) and battles.


For the fact that you have troubles to find buyers for your pokemons, concider that people with cash can already have pokemons they want, so they don't need to buy more than they have. Or they want to catch themselves their pokemons as in heldgames to be proud of catching good pokemons. It's my case, and I'm part of the middle group you seem to do not see. Yeah I "only" have 4 millions (and it's because i sold a King's Rock (droppable item), I usually have only 200k), but I also found a lot of good pokemons, shinies AND regulars, and if one day i want to sell them, I'll be part of what you call the rich players. For the fact that you have troubles to find shinies with membership, even if it's 1/2000+ on each encounter, it's only about random numbers generated system on each encounter, a random numbers generated system similar to heldgames (in easy word, "luck").


There's a lot of way to make cash in PWO:
- fainting pokemons;
- selling good ivs pokemons;
- (re)fainting npcs;
- doing quests;
- selling droppable/battle-tower items;
- doing daycare...


And by the way, in heldgames Pokemon, you don't need to buy pokemons. Just pokeballs.


Thanks to concider this game as a free MMO game which tend mostly to looks like heldgames.


(I understand your point fo view, but you don't seem to understand that it works like that in all MMOs and there's no problem)



Edit: sorry for my crappy english, it's not my motherlanguage :/

you dont seem to understand the problem, i wont get into everything you just said becasue its pretty much true apart from 1 huge deal

There's a lot of way to make cash in PWO:
- fainting pokemons; - 50per poke 2000 pokes is about what 100k gold? please... thats not money.
- selling good ivs pokemons; Just no. you can try to sell all you want, but unless you got a REALLY epic one, all you can do is try. lets say u got an epic hr, good for u, u made 5m
- (re)fainting npcs; again 100k at most.
- doing quests; what quests ?
- selling droppable/battle-tower items, maybe here you got a point but still you need a good team to get the good stuff or alot of time and i mean alot.
- doing daycare... hardly anyone does that this days and its not as profitable

even with all your methods combained, you bearly scratched 10m, and half of it is based on luck(the epic pokes part) ,and not to mantion it would take lots of time to gain.

you see, your argumant is correct if we had more then 1000 players, its called a mmo, the first M is massive, we bearly get 150-180 players on a good day, and 120 of them (an estimate) are poor, not new, poor.
thats the difference i think you assmued im anew player and frasturated, no. i've all the good pokes, i've 1200 hr's, i'm just trying to make a change, it doesn't make sense that 50% of the communty at least dont have more then
100m combained, yes you heard me right i said combained. and the other 40% are "decent" with 10% rich,
i'm WILLING to have my pokemons drop in value, for YOU. so new players, and im no talking about the just downloaded the game new, im talking about the few months new, will be able to earn money.
the example i gave with me not selling my pokes wasn't becasue i want to sell them and im selfish, it was to prove a point, it doesn't make any sense when im tryin to sell a 100m poke a player with 100-200 hr's will offer me 100k or i even had someone offer me 2k, and its not just me, and no they are not trying to merch, they just dont have a way of earning money,

and rig, its most likely duo to the fact that you need to wait fully until you get the message before you can ru naway now, which takes 5 seconds, about the same time it take to find a battle, so it pretty much makes shinys x2 harder to find.

 

[Boora]

To be blunt, the amount of money in the game's economy is drastically reducing, and due to the reluctant nature of people to lower prices on anything, deflation is always lagging behind the amount of money being drained from the system.

Example:
1.person X pays 100m for pokemon y on day Z
2. person X values pokemon Y at 100m 50 days later.
3. 50 days later even more money was drained from the game from various outlets.
4. Pokemon Y 50 days later is not actually 100m anymore (it is less), but retains the same RELATIVE value to everything else in similar pricing tiers, so the player deceptively assumes it is still worth 100m.


This is why things are the way they are, and not because of old ivs. The current situation is that no one WANTS to trade their old ivs. They are collection pieces now, even for the non-battle pokemon. The issue is that you cannot as easily REPLACE those pokemon anymore, and as such are more reluctant to trading them in the first place. That is the only reason, in the beginning, why 28+ spiked up in value. So you have people who are more reluctant to sell due to being harder to replace + the economy deflating happening at once. The problem would STILL EXIST with even one of these factors, but the issue is both are occurring at the same time causing the reality of the market to change faster than the REALIZATION by the player-base of these economic tendencies.

When we get more 20+ shinies in the system, it will even things out in terms of trading. We just need to give it time so that 20+ will become the new standard of trading. It is already happening and is another reason why 28+ increased. 20+ being the standard, means things above that standard just went up. 28+ shinies also disappear due to bans or inactivity account wipes which will mean it will take a shorter amount of time for 20+ to catch up as the standard. We don't need another 8 years to do so.

TL;DR
Give it time, it will fix itself. Players are just too slow to realize these things generally speaking + we dont have enough of the new-age shinies to outnumber 28+ as the norm yet in higher tier rarities.

People also don't seem to realize just how many 28+ disappear per year. Hundreds of 28+ disappear EVERY SINGLE YEAR, assuming they still end up doing account wipes for inactives.

The system will produce healthier outcomes in the long-run, but for the short-run it will seem highly imbalanced.

you pretty much hit the spot, 100% correct, but i think something other then waiting 2-3 years should be done,
if the battles could end faster or the shiny chance would reduce by a little bit, it would make the "normal" shinys cost less, which inturn would make it so more people can afford them,
and i dont see how it will hurt the "good stats" ones, they're still special duo to thier stats and retain thier value, and at the same time, a player who had a net worth of 100k until now could stamble across a shiny rare or above and gain some money for himself, or at least a nice pokemon which will motivate him to keep playing, look at this kid who got a scyther few days ago, just started playing, got a (S)scyther wanna bet his not quitting anytime soon, and yes it was nice to see a freshly caught s vr LOl, apart from events you bearly see it anymore :/

 

[NurseJoy!]

Adding something small to this huge topic.

About selling BT items.

I have 600+ hr play time and i completely depend on BT items to earn money.But one thing i notice is that no one buy BT items any more.because they already have everything.Why would any one want to buy more than one power item.So earning money by selling BT items is not an easy way to earn money.

 

[Electrofreak]

Honestly, some person caught a S Rhyhorn in safari (which is only VR now btw) and they quit soon after. That scyther honestly was really close to old ivs too. It had 30 speed and 31 attack if I remember correctly.

Anyway the reason X years is necessary, is because the problem itself was caused over 8 years of bad management. The original 20% shiny boost was abhorrent, and the 28+ was made just to appease people from being angry. The problem now is that it has been SO LONG, that any short-term fix will just create more issues.

Let us follow your solution to its logical conclusion shall we?

Again, as in the other thread, modus tollens will again help us here. If P, then Q.

P -> Q

"If there are no max speed shiny salamences, then when you see a shiny salamence it is not max speed."

Modus Tollens is a rule of inference using the common "if/then" conjunction operator.

P -> Q: "If there are no max speed shiny salamences, then when you see a shiny salamence it is not max speed."
~Q: "I see a shiny salamence."
-----------
therefore ~P: "It is not max speed."

The conditional P -> Q and the given -Q above the line construct the argument where you can infer the conclusion ~P.


Premise 1. If shiny rate is made easier, more people will catch 20+ shinies.
Support for premise 1: self-evident ; statistical analysis
Premise 2. If more people catch 20+ shinies, their price will decrease.
Support for premise 2: self-evident ; law of supply and demand
Premise 3. If 20+ shinies price decrease, then 28+ shinies will be more valuable in comparison at a faster rate.
Support for premise 3: law of supply and demand ; crowding out principle
Premise 4. If 28+ shinies raise in value comparatively faster, then you create a larger gap between the price ceiling and price floor.
Support for premise 4: Marginal Rate of Substitution (Indifference Theory)
Premise 5. If there is a larger gap between the price ceiling and price floor, then the problem is made worse than it is now.
Support for premise 5: Initial problem is gap between price floor and ceiling for newer players.
Conclusion: If the shiny rate is made easier, then the problem is made worse than it is now.

Through inference you can conclude that your solution would extend the problem, not shorten it. We need those X years to cycle out those inactive 28+ shinies, as well as allow the newer ones to catch up. If you accelerate the latter, without dealing with the first, then you just create a larger problem in the mean-time, while the resulting X years will still be necessary.

Not even to mention the fact that 28+ are NOT any good measure stronger than 20+. I have math on this elsewhere, but it would not be relevant here. The problem is player-opinion creating higher perceptions of value than the stats actually warrant. This won't change unless suddenly people don't like shinies.

 

[Electrofreak]

Also just to clarify the format is essentially a hypothetical syllogism:

If P, then Q.
If Q, then R.
If R, then S.

If P, then S.

If you wish to raise a claim the way to do it would to find fault with any premise, then we address that premise since the chain will only work if each premise is sound.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_syllogism


Edit: I forgot the term so I changed it now that I found it. (o.o)b

 

[Boora]

i actually dont agree with you at all, Ef, if you increase the chance, lets go with the example of a s rhydon, then obviously more rhy's would be out which means even with 20+ ivs, some of them will have better ivs even then the old 28+,
not in everything granted, but still lets say in atk,hp,def, (i assume thats what rhy needs), so if you'd pay 500m for an old 28ivs rhy and only 100 m for a 31hp,30def,29,atk rhy becasue the spdef is 20 or something, that is your problem, if someone is rich enough to overpay this much (the prices by the way were examples) just to say "i have old ivs" thats his problem, like you said the difference is extreamly small, apart from spd at least for obvious reasons.
you keep brining the old 28ivs pokes into this, which is the problem, most of them are not battlers, the ones that are already worth the 1b+, most of them worth 150-200m for collection,
the prices of 28ivs wont increase, the gap will just seem bigger, but in time, (much less then 2-3years) people will start getting GOOD stats of those pokemons, so why would anyone in his right mind even bother buying all 28ivs lets say s star, when he can buy a 31spd,29spatk and the rest 25ivs, for at least 200m less, for the 2-3ivs in every category ? you said so yourself its nothing, especially when you factor evs,

thats how i see things, i dont take the old 28ivs onto account becasue the extream ones are aleady 1b... and the vr/hr are at 500+, so no i dont think thier price will increase, what i do think would happen is people would prefer the new ivs over the old because they're affordable and not bad to be honest,
its like when there were s dragons in the game which were like 1b+ (28ivs) every single person who owned one still used a none shiny one in battle, because it wasn't max spd, even tho shiny one was better at pretty much everything else
i know spd isnt as importnat now, but its just one example i can think of to make my point.

 

[Electrofreak]

You do realize even with completely ignoring 28+ the issue is still the same right? Common and Rare shinies would flow in much faster, creating higher supply and less demand for those shinies, no matter what they are. This means you would cheapen commons at a faster rate than the higher tier rarities. If you do this, you are arguably in a worse position than in the first place, because you need to be higher up on the rarity chain to even have something worthwhile, then when you DO have something higher up on that chain, people would then offer you stuff you don't even want because it is so easy to get.

You are an old player, so dont try to BS and say lowering shiny rates would give people more value because it wouldn't. All it would do is make everything cheaper and easier, which solves nothing. (FYI it would just make commons worth nothing again just like it was back in the old days, even with the same rates we have now.) It just means the poor player's "nothing" sparkles whereas now it doesn't.

Come on man...really?

 

[Electrofreak]

Just to clarify, if everything is cheap and easy, then there is no middle class, which doesn't help what you are trying to do at all. It just makes the poor/rich situation worse by inherently giving even MORE value to the lucky who roll max speed on that shiny they just caught. At least right now max speed is something hard to come by and isn't the standard of battle.

You just came back recently dude. The market is way healthier than it was years ago because catching a shiny vulpix/growlithe MEANS something now...for the first time since 2009.

Also, poor, middle-class, and rich, are subjective terms that need to be quantified before having any sort of discussion about them.

 

[Boora]

i actually completely did not factor in the fact that the community has only around 200 people, that was my bad you're correct,
but it was just an idea, maybe this one is bad, but something has to be done, money is getting drained left and right and there are no new souces of getting money,
all i actually wanted is for players to be able to advance in the game without being dependant on getting a lucky s rare+

 

[Electrofreak]

The thing is, they will do this in time. As money is drained, and 28+ shinies taper off into oblivion, then 20+ becomes standard alongside the new money system.

The 20+ will be traded with some frequency in the reduced money pool. 28+ shinies will become collector's items that won't be traded and effect the marketplace at all.

The newbie player will look to the guy with S exeggutor and go "wow thats so cool!" because of how rare those things have become over time.

Battles will mostly take place with common shinies and epic VR/HR/UC, with shiny variants being almost unheard of due to the range increase on shinies.


20+ means you will see shinies less in the battle scene (for sweepers who need speed mostly), but still have enough for collectors who do not care about IVs. We no longer equate a battler and a collector like in the past.

 

[Electrofreak]

What we need is something that will want to bring players back to the game. This will spread out a lot more of the commons giving them more value, while increasing the flow of rare shinies into the game steadily. Populations increase faster than the amount of shinies coming into the game due to the fact that most are not hardcore hunters.

The higher price gaps and lower supply are actually what motivate people to hunt in the first place.


I am not doing this to seem smug but there are also way more than 200, just saying.

 

[I.Am]

Thanks Obama.

 

[mad30]

Question:

What do you think would happen if pwo reduced the guaranteed shiny IVs again?

How do all natures/abilities in game affect this?